Climate change and trajectories of vegetation change in an alpine heathland

Abstract

Global warming is predicted to have substantial effects on vegetation dynamics in mountainous and high latitude ecosystems worldwide. In order to predict plausible trajectories of future vegetation change, we must first determine how temperature influences rates and directions of potential changes. Furthermore, we must quantify how these rates are influenced by disturbance and biotic interactions and how these may interact with climate. We also require detailed knowledge about how these interactive effects are likely to influence the establishment, growth and survival of seedlings; a life stage to which vegetation dynamics are sensitive and one which is highly vulnerable to changes in climat..